Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
The rupee depreciated 22 paise to a record low of 78.59 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday as persistent foreign funds outflows weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.53 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.59 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 22 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee declined by 4 paise to close at its life-time low of 78.37 against the US dollar.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
'The signal is crude oil prices will rise, I am cutting my subsidy. Be prepared, prices will rise.'
After the latest spike in crude oil prices, petrol prices could potentially go up to around Rs 90 a litre making a dent in the consumer's wallet. This, the analysts fear, will push the cost of vehicle ownership in the country, further reducing the demand potential for the industry.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled with gains for the third straight session on Monday, helped by buying in auto, banking and capital goods shares despite a spike in crude oil prices. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 114.92 points or 0.19 per cent to close at 59,106.44 points with 22 of its components ending in the green and eight closing lower. It moved in a range of 58,793.08 points to 59,204.82 points during intra-day trade.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
BPCL gained nearly 4% to Rs 674, while HPCL gained more than 2% to Rs 451.
Iran has offered discounts on crude oil price and free shipping if India agrees to buy more of its oil.
Petrol prices have been cut in small doses on 20 occasions.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
Market gurus weigh in with how they're playing the accelerating oil market.
International oil prices have hit a six-month low, helping Indian fuel retailers breakeven on petrol but they continue to lose money on diesel - the most used fuel in the country, officials said. The world's best-known crude benchmark, Brent was trading at $94.91 per barrel on Thursday after concerns of a global recession led to it slipping to a six-month low of $91.51 on the previous day. The current rates are a relief to India, which is 85 per cent dependent on imports for meeting its oil needs.
Crude oil hit an all time high in rupee terms; Tuesday figures expected to be higher
Indian refiners will buy less oil from Saudi Arabia next month as they snap up supplies outside of the Middle East as part of diversification drive amid weakening domestic fuel demand on the resurgence of COVID-19. State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and three other refiners have sought just 65 per cent of the monthly average of about 15 million barrels from Saudi Arabia in May, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. The move follows tensions between India and Saudi Arabia over the Kingdom's hawkish stance on boosting production to cool prices.
Petroleum Minister Ram Naik on Tuesday ruled out any increase in petrol and diesel prices in the run-up to the General Elections saying international crude oil prices have eased.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
From the 30-share pack, Indusind Bank, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest drags, tumbling up to 7.63 per cent.
A Group of Ministers will take the decision in June.
The goverment on Wednesday ruled out any increase in petrol and diesel prices despite international crude oil prices touching an all-time high.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance fell by nearly 3 per cent, the most among the 30 frontline companies. Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank were the other major laggards. In contrast, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
Petrol and diesel prices across the country soared to all-time high levels on Thursday as rates were hiked again in line with the spurt in international oil prices. Petrol price was increased by 30 paise per litre and diesel by 35 paise a litre, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The price of petrol in Delhi rose to its highest-ever level of Rs 103.24 a litre and to Rs 109.25 per litre in Mumbai, the notification showed.
Sensex lost 184 points to trade at 23,878 and the Nifty has dropped 55 points to quote at 7,254.
It calculated that the government should have got an additional profit share of $ 115.263 million.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
After steep correction in valuations, these have turned attractive but upside will depend on diesel price rises and export-parity pricing.
Dalal Street investors were a poorer lot on Monday as their wealth eroded sharply by Rs 14 lakh crore following a sharp decline in benchmark indices amid a global market meltdown due to recession fears. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 2,226.79 points or 2.95 per cent to settle at 73,137.90. Intra-day, the benchmark slumped 3,939.68 points or 5.22 per cent to 71,425.01.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a five-month low of 13.93 per cent in July on easing prices of food articles and manufactured products. The WPI-based inflation softened for the second consecutive month in July, raising hopes of further decline in wholesale prices in the months to come. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation, after scaling a record high of 15.88 per cent in May, declined to 15.18 per cent in June. It was 13.43 per cent in February. It was 11.57 per cent in July last year.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
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